At the close in New York, the US dollar index traded at 78.60 points, up 0.10%; the euro/dollar received a slight cross star, at 1.3258.
Since the second round of bailout plan for Greece has not yet reached an agreement and risk aversion attempts to dominate the market, the US dollar once rebounded at a nearly 78.90 level. However, the recent situation in Greece is still positive. Not only some private sectors are willing to forego bond yields. With regard to the writedown of Greek debt, even the European Central Bank has made concessions on Greek debt swaps because they did not do so. If Greece were to go bankrupt, these debts may be a piece of paper. Regardless of this, this has also played a role in resolving the urgent need of Greece, because if Greece cannot obtain a new round of aid through these means, Greece will face bankruptcy risk next month. This is a failure for Greece and even the euro zone. Suffered results.
During European time, the time of the talks between the Greek prime ministers and party leaders originally scheduled for 21:00 on the 8th Beijing time was postponed to 23:00 again. It was also reported that the agreement between the European Central Bank and the EFSF on Greek debt swaps has not yet been implemented, and The European stock markets plunged, and the US stocks opened up and opened up. The market sentiment was under pressure and the United States Index oscillated upwards.
However, in New York City, John Williams, chairman of the San Francisco Fed, said that if the economy loses momentum and inflation stays well below 2%, more loose monetary policy may be needed. This increases the US Federal Reserveâ€™s loose monetary policy expectations and triggers US dollar selling. At the same time, it is reported that the European Central Bank has in principle reached an agreement to reduce the size of Greek debt. It has taken a big step toward the final public debt resolution agreement between public and private sector creditors. High down.
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) said on Wednesday that the US dollar weakened as Greece neared a debt swap agreement to secure a second bailout loan.
BBH said that there is news that the Greek government and private investors have reached an agreement, and there is news that the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to exchange Greek bonds at a price lower than the face value.
The current global market sentiment has not worsened because the market expects Greece to reach an early agreement, or even if the country defaults, it will be a controllable breach of contract. However, if expectations are met (the market virtually has no reason to believe that expectations can be achieved), risk appetite will be significantly reduced.
The Greek Prime Minister will hold talks with party leaders on the loan agreement. The leaders of the three major political parties in the Greek coalition government will decide what to do and check the euro and even the entire financial market. EU officials also pointed out that there is no disagreement within the European Commission on the Greek issue. The key to the Greek issue still depends on the Greek leaders.
San Francisco Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday (February 8th) that if the economy loses momentum or inflation stays well below the 2% level, more loose monetary policy may be needed. Williams said that if the Fed needs further action, the best way is to restart the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pointed out that the current U.S. economy is in the midst of a slow recovery. However, the continued fermentation of the European debt crisis poses a serious threat to the U.S. economy. The U.S. economic recovery is also facing severe challenges, and long-term unemployment remains a problem. Obviously, the Fed will take the necessary monetary policy measures to ensure the momentum of US economic recovery. This obviously increased the possibility of QE3 launch, the United States refers to maintain a low order.
At present, the debt crisis in Europe may still deteriorate. The European real economy will continue to be dragged down. The U.S. economy is the only one with good scenery. Both the GDP growth rate and the unemployment rate are clearly improving. The international capital seeking safe haven will continue to flow to the United States. In addition, the Fed is expected to keep the interest rate close to zero until 2014, and the current mortgage interest rate is also close to the lowest point ever, plus QE3 policy is still likely to be launched in the second half of the year. Abundant liquidity will also help Economic recovery.
In addition, in its latest report, Morgan Stanley predicts that the governmentâ€™s budget deficit in the United States will moderately narrow in January. Fiscal revenue will increase by 5.0% and spending will decline by 1.2%.
From a technical point of view, the middle of the weekly Bollinger Bands was broken, and the MACD's death fork was successful, but the double line was above the zero line. The long-term uptrend is still there, but the short-term correction is necessary. The RSI is tested for 50 resistance. The chart looks like: Yesterday was affected by the euro The regionâ€™s favorable information supports the fact that the United States Index fell sharply under the support of the 89-day moving average and both the MACD and the RSI were at low levels, indicating that there may still be a correction in the near future. Concern about the pressure on the US index: 78.88 support: 78.00, 78.20
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