Ye Tan: real estate regulation directional relaxation

At the end of 2011, at the same time when the effectiveness of real estate regulation and control began to emerge, starting from rigid demand and investment promotion, the signs of China's real estate regulation and orientation and relaxation have become apparent.

Due to the sharp drop in trading volume, house prices have become loose. According to data previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of newly-built commercial housing prices fell to 34 in October from the previous month, an increase of 17 from the previous month, and there were two cities in the same period of last year, which was a year-on-year increase. The number of cities falling back reached 59, an increase of 13 from the previous month.

This is not an ideal regulatory result: On the one hand, investors' expectations have not been completely eliminated. In the real economy downturn, the currency bubble has not subsided, the investment has no door, many investors are holding money for purchase, as long as the policy is slightly loose, the real estate market will appear retaliatory rebound; on the other hand, due to the large volume of transactions With the decline, local governments have come to face the difficulties of land flow and difficulties, and whether or not to loosen control has become the focus of the game.

Policies are two-way: Relaxation and control are the ultimate illusions of real estate optimists; they are doomed to be impossible to achieve; in response to the economic downturn, local directional easing policies have been introduced.

In the face of the enthusiasm of real estate regulation and relaxation, people concerned responded with a strong response. First, in early November, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao emphasized that the real estate regulation did not relax. Then on November 25, Vice Premier Li Keqiang stated that the current real estate market regulation has achieved certain results, but it is still in a critical period, and it is necessary to insist on implementing policies and measures to curb excessive price increases. , to further consolidate the regulatory results. Continue to improve the housing supply system, while actively promoting the construction of affordable housing such as public rental housing, and increasing the intensity of shanty towns, at the same time, increase the supply of medium and low-priced, ordinary small and medium sized commercial housing. Give full play to the power of the market, meet the multi-level and diversified housing needs of the people, promote the healthy development of the real estate market and the people's livelihood. From the position of two key people in real estate control policies, it can be seen that it is impossible for real estate to return to the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009.

Although the real estate regulation will not relax, but the introduction of new policies throughout the country, we can see that the regulation has gradually turned to pragmatic, starting from rigid demand and investment, the use of rigid demand to help the city to save local financial signs. The short-term goal is to save sharply falling trading volume and the long-term goal is to stimulate rigid demand and develop economic development zones.

Around the city has shown clues. On October 21, the Nanjing Provident Fund Management Center announced that starting from the 24th, the Nanjing Provident Fund loan will resume its maximum loan quota. The maximum loan amount will be restored from the current 200,000 yuan/person and 400,000 yuan/household to 300,000 yuan/person and 600,000 yuan/household. Synchronizing with the quota recovery is the conditional recovery of the CPF's secondary lending policy: the family has applied for a provident fund loan. After all the loan is paid off and the only housing is sold, a provident fund loan can be used when purchasing the house again, but the down payment must not be lower than At 60%, the loan interest rate is 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate of the provident fund. This is the second shy balloon to relax real estate financial leverage.

Hangzhou, which is in the eyes of the price crash, is particularly eye-catching. The Implementation Rules for the 2011 Hangzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone Enterprise Housing Construction Subsidy (Interim) issued on June 3, 2011 was formally launched. According to the "Detailed Rules", the Development Zone finances a special fund for the granting of subsidies for corporate employees (hereinafter referred to as "special fund") for a total of 100 million yuan, which will be used to establish rental subsidy and purchase subsidy schemes.

According to the provision of a one-off subsidy of RMB 100,000 per house and a three-year maximum subsidy of RMB 500,000 for a commercial bank loan for the same period, the highest interest per house may be 200,000 yuan per subsidy. If the amount of the loan is less than 500,000 yuan, subsidies shall be granted according to the actual amount of the loan, and the applicant must purchase real estate within the development zone within the year of 2011.

This move by Hangzhou attracts investment from the Economic Development Zone, and the second is the stabilization of housing prices in the Economic Development Zone. According to the latest statistics from the Hangzhou Municipal Bureau of Statistics, from January to October this year, the city’s commercial housing sales area was 5.0713 million square meters, down 20.8% year-on-year. The Xiasha section of the Hangzhou Economic Development Zone has become the sinking center of the real estate sector and has set off the trend of price cuts. According to the data from Hangzhou Transparent Sale Network, the sector is currently the most declining plate in Hangzhou with the highest drop of 40%. About 10%. When I went to Xiasha, I saw a large slogan in the residential building protesting the developers' price cuts. The call for “returning my hard-earned money” was not in Hangzhou.

Hangzhou is not alone. According to the “Notice on Publicizing the Average Transaction Price of Ordinary Housing for Enjoying Preferential Policies in this Municipality” jointly formulated by the Beijing Municipal Housing Development and Construction Commission and the Local Taxation Bureau, and the “Combined Development of Housing Investment Taxes” jointly formulated by Beijing Municipal Bureau of Finance, Local Taxation Bureau, and Housing and Construction Commission. The notice of the collection and management work, starting from December 10th, Beijing enjoys preferential policies. The average transaction price of ordinary houses is adjusted to be determined in accordance with the city's average housing transaction price combined with location adjustment factors.

The New Deal introduced by Beijing has distinguished luxury houses and non-luxury properties with new standards. The direct effect is to stimulate rigid demand and stimulate the development of the government's key regulatory regions. The New Deal defines an ordinary residential property as having to satisfy the residential area volume ratio of 1.0 (inclusive) or more, a single set of building area of ​​140 (inclusive) square meters or less, and the actual transaction price is less than 1.2 times the average price of the newly-determined regional average housing. Housing, and said to meet the conditions of "ordinary housing", the purchase and sale of both parties can enjoy tax concessions.

In the new standard, the “maximum total price of the set of shells by the ring line” is adjusted to be “according to the city's average transaction price of houses combined with location adjustment factors”. In addition to considering the loop factors, the adjustment coefficient also considers the distinction between Nancheng and Beicheng. The northern district of the Fourth Ring Road, which has the highest standards of certification, reached 38,880 yuan per square meter, and the lowest outside the six-ring area also reached 17,280 yuan per square meter. This means that the government has approved differential rents in the downtown area; it does not calculate the price standard in accordance with the total housing price, but instead calculates the price per square meter.

In the future, the number of ordinary residential buildings in Beijing will greatly increase, and buyers with rigid demand can enjoy tax benefits. In different regions, the deductions and sales taxes of both sides can reach a reduction range of 70,000 yuan to more than 120,000 yuan.

Different regions have introduced subsidies for home buyers, and Changzhou’s leading innovation and entrepreneurial talents have given up to 500,000 yuan in one-time house purchase subsidies and up to 300,000 yuan in settled rewards. In the first 10 districts of Chongqing City, the first mortgage buyers, while in the 10 districts to pay a tax purchase of property rights, according to the amount of tax paid can enjoy financial subsidies. According to the financial department of Chongqing, the policy is mainly to introduce high-end talents. As in the past, tax incentives were introduced for investment promotion. At present, the purchase subsidy is popular. It can be seen that the government hopes to use the housing to introduce enterprises and talents. Its symbolic significance is far greater than its practical significance.

In addition to supporting the market with rigid demand and saving transaction volume, it is also of utmost importance to guarantee real estate investment and maintain stable economic growth.

UBS Securities recently released a research report that China's overall real estate construction activities will be drastically reduced in the coming months. According to data from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, real estate sales in October fell by 10% year-on-year. Since the implementation of the real estate control policy in April 2010, for the first time since the introduction of new regulations, the sales area has declined. The growth of new housing starts has also slowed down. In October, it only increased by about 2.2% over the same period of last year. In October, the area under construction fell by 3% year-on-year, the first decline in one and a half years.

If the real estate investment declines, the investment-led economy will have a rapid downside risk. Therefore, it is not surprising to emphasize the scale of construction of affordable housing. The left hand pulled rigid demand, and the right hand urged the construction of affordable housing, hoping to achieve a soft landing of the Chinese real estate market.

Like the monetary policy, the real estate market is not able to relax completely, but quantitative easing has become a reality. It can be expected that if the economy is further tightened, the scope of quantitative quantitative loosening of the currency and real estate market will further expand.

Regulation of real estate is rampant, housing prices do not decline, people worry about the bubble; housing prices have just begun to loosen, trading volume and land flow, making some groups frightened.

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